Saturday in Ottawa: the game the Canadiens can’t afford to win

I’m the first to say that you shouldn’t wish the Habs nothing but losses, to avoid spoiling the mood in the dressing room. Imagine if the Habs lost 30 in a row to end the season…

That said, if there’s one game the Habs can’t afford to win, it’s tomorrow night’s against Ottawa.

Why can’t they? Because if you look at the standings, it’s clear that the Ottawa Senators, along with the ~~Salt Lake City~~ Coyotes, are the Habs’ “opponents” in the lottery race.

The Blue Jackets and all the other clubs in the top-4 (from the bottom) can’t catch the Habs. Much like in 2022-2023, the Sharks, Hawks, Ducks and Blue Jackets are no good.

To the top? Even if the Flames and Kraken (mathematically) are still catchable, I don’t see the Habs making it. The Flames have a game in hand on the Habs, who have 79 games on the clock.

What this means is that the Sens (74 points) and Coyotes (73 points, like the Habs) are all in a good position to finish fifth, sixth or seventh from bottom.

And there’s quite a difference between finishing fifth and seventh, both in terms of the odds of winning the lottery and the pick itself if the lottery doesn’t change anything.

The last three games will help to change the standings, but we all agree that Saturday’s game against Ottawa will have the biggest impact on the standings.

Will Habs fans be chanting “Go Sens Go” in the stands? Will Cayden Primeau be there? What about Lane Hutson?

While we’re on the subject of standings, it’s worth noting that 13 teams have already qualified. Seven are in the West, and it’s probably only a matter of time before the Golden Knights eliminate St. Louis.

The Jets, for those wondering about the Habs’ choice, are seventh overall.

As for the last two places in the East, Patrick Roy’s Islanders gave themselves a good chance of victory yesterday. Nothing’s decided yet, but it felt good to win against the Habs.

The Penguins, Capitals and Red Wings are also battling it out. The Flyers, with one more game under their belts, cut themselves some slack.

6th straight win for the Islanders last night, two big points in the standings, extending their lead in the playoff race.

Three points ahead of the Penguins, who leapfrogged the Capitals.

Exciting race in the final week of the season pic.twitter.com/Swh3CgWyLv

– Patrick Friolet (@PFrioletRDS) April 12, 2024

In gusto

– Wow!

Tell me this isn’t a set play/deliberate faceoff loss by Crosby & Rust. Crosby gets himself kicked out, Rust deliberately loses draw to Larkin, Crosby jumps to where the puck is and gets possession. pic.twitter.com/Yu3lHqYiM4

– Jeff Marek (@JeffMarek) April 12, 2024

– Mark Stone gets the green light to practice with his teammates.

Mark Stone has been cleared to practice with the team on the ice as he continues to recover from a lacerated spleen sustained on February 20.

Stone is expected to participate in a non-contact jersey beginning on Friday during the team’s morning skate.#VegasBorn

– Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) April 12, 2024

– The Habs won’t make the playoffs… and their affiliated clubs (Rocket and Lions) are off to a bad start. [ECHL]

– Filip Chytil skates.

Filip Chytil skating with the @NYRangers is a great sign. He’s been medically cleared and wanted to get back on the ice. No timeline for his return and he won’t be rushed, but if all goes well he could provide a huge boost in the playoffs.

– Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) April 12, 2024

– Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have great chemistry.

just because i was curious, here are the 53 different goal scorers connor mcdavid has assisted on. https://t.co/CQUSD8IoNP pic.twitter.com/7IfLv0lvDT

– zach (@zjlaing) April 12, 2024

– Really?

In February, the Habs went two games without a power play, something that hasn’t happened since at least 2009, when the NHL began keeping track of the number of power plays from one game to the next.
With yesterday’s game, he “realized” another such sequence.

– Marc Antoine Godin (@MAGodin) April 12, 2024